(note: apologies for being too busy to blog my usual election analysis, so much of this sounds like old news. But I always want a written record of my thoughts, though I don't always have the time to do it)
1. (Hawaii)
With the current Lieutenant Governor Josh Green winning the election, this shows that the general public was satisfied with the way he handled the pandemic.
It also helped that Green is a medical doctor and that brought major credibility during the pandemic when attention to public health was at its peak.
People loved when Green went to local talk shows to explain the latest on the coronavirus crisis.
This was a contrast to the current governor David Ige who had a reputation for not making quick decisions and isn't the best communicator out there.
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In other Hawaii election news, my favorite part of this election: the 2 drunk drivers in the Hawaii legislature (Sharon Har, Matthew Lopresti) lost. Good riddance to these 2 arrogant pricks who thought they didn't have to follow the same rules like everyone else.
2.) US
In the last 2 years, the US has dealt with increased inflation and a rising crime rate.
This kind of stuff usually hurts the party in power, in this case, the Democrats.
A red wave of major Republican victories in Congress was understandably predicted.
The Republicans did win the House, though by a smaller margin than predicted. But they lost the Senate.
The main reason: the people don't trust Donald Trump or his close allies.
Trump got lucky in 2016 with Hillary Clinton running an incompetent campaign. She didn't put enough resources in winning over the Midwest and just expected people to just be offended by the crazy rantings of Donald Trump! That strategy didn't work.
The Democrats have since woken up. With the 2020 campaign, they took nothing for granted. It also helped that Trump mismanaged the coronavirus crisis.
In 2022, the Democrats were able to speak to the voter's concerns, and avoided radical left slogans like "defund the police".
Meanwhile, the allegedly pro-police, "law & order" Republicans had too many who sympathized with the January 6 Capitol rioters who attacked the police.
Most of the candidates who spouted the conspiracy theories of a "stolen election" sounded like sore losers and lost.
Donald Trump now sounds like a man stuck in the past. Meanwhile, the Republican's future is now with Florida's governor Ron DeSantis.
Will DeSantis win the presidency in 2024? He is a good communicator, loves a tough fight, and knows the issues that get people riled up!
But in Florida, the Democrats are weak. Also, Republicans are quick to remind Cuban and Venezuelan voters in Miami (and surrounding communities) that "Democrats are socialists".
However, DeSantis has his weakness. He is seen as a right-wing nutcase who is all about the attention he gets from going around declaring "hey look at me everybody, I'm being politically incorrect".
Ron DeSantis open homophobia is probably not to go over well in swing states like Nevada with its "live and let live" ethos. Also, the abortion issue (especially since the repeal of Roe v Wade) brought Democrat victories in swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
As for Joe Biden, he may be old (and in my opinion, past his prime) but he did have his victories with his infrastructure bills. His college loan relief plan also motivated voters to vote Democrat.
It is possible that he may run in 2024. If not, the Democrats better find a charismatic leader fast. Kamala Harris doesn't really excite people, but neither do most Democrats. Biden's former press secretary Jen Psaki is probably the best communicator the Democrats have, but she lacks executive experience. Gavin Newsom (California governor) might be the best option.
