Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Democrat primary

There was much promise in the diversity among the candidates who planned to run for the Democrat nomination for president!

We  had


  • Joe Biden (former VP under Obama)
  • Bernie Sanders (the loud socialist who ran a surprising campaign in 2016)
  • Elizabeth Warren (senator, consumer advocate, professor)
  • Cory Booker (former Newark mayor, now New Jersey senator)
  • Kamala Harris (California senator, former state attorney general)
  • Julian Castro (Obama's housing director)
  • Andrew Yang (tech entrepreneur)
  • Tulsi Gabbard (eccentric representative from Hawaii)
  • Mike Bloomberg (billionaire, ex-mayor of New York)
  • Amy Klobuchar (senator from Minnesota)
  • Pete Buttigieg (mayor of South Bend, Indiana)
  • Tom Steyer (billionaire)

I once predicted Cory Booker to be the best bet for the nomination.  My thinking is that the voters preferred a tough guy (which was Donald Trump's appeal) and Cory Booker was the one guy who could make Trump look weak. My thinking was also based on the fact that the number of African-Americans who voted went down in 2016 since Obama was no longer on the ballot, and that Booker might bring them back to the polls for 2020. I also thought that would be important to bring the industrial Midwest states (ie Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) back to the Democrat column.

However, much of the energy Cory Booker could've brought was deflated when Kamala Harris entered the race. She got more intersectional points by being both "black" (she has Jamaican & Indian parents) and female.  However, when people found out that Kamala Harris advocated for punitive marijuana policies, sent parents to jail for their children's truancy,  and doubled-down even when her convictions were proven to be under false premises, this went against the trend towards a less punitive criminal justice policy favored by the Left.

learn more at

Jamilah King, “Kamala harris made history. Then her history caught up with her.,” Mother Jones, December 3, 2019, https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/12/kamala-harris-made-history-then-her-history-caught-up-with-her/

Lara Bazelon, “Kamala Harris Was Not a ‘Progressive Prosecutor’,” New York Times, January 17, 2019,
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/kamala-harris-criminal-justice.html


Kamala Harris did get a boost when she questioned Joe Biden about his anti-busing stance in the 1970s and said: "that little girl was me".  This gave the impression that Biden was somehow a segregationist, and that it hurts inner city  "little girls like me". But it turned out that even many African-Americans objected to mandatory busing, and that Harris would've had access to a great education even without busing being that her parents were university professors. 

Her attempts to show that Joe Biden wasn't "woke enough" BACKFIRED BIG TIME!  Kamala Harris couldn't even garner enough African-American support, and Joe Biden won the majority of African-American voters.  "Woker than thou" really doesn't win over African-American voters outside of the radical fringe.


Jeff Jacoby on Joe Biden's opinion on mandatory busing actually matched the overall African-American opinion
Jeff Jacoby, “Biden was right. Busing was wrong.,” Townhall, July 3, 2019,
https://townhall.com/columnists/jeffjacoby/2019/07/03/biden-was-right-busing-was-wrong-n2549504

----------- On the baloney assertion that Kamala Harris was some underprivileged "that little girl was me" when she actually had a privileged upbringing in Berkeley (NOT Selma)
Daniel Greenfield, “Kamala Harris Lives in One of the Most Segregated Neighborhoods in Los Angeles,” Front Page Mag, July 18, 2019,
https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2019/07/kamala-harris-lives-one-most-segregated-daniel-greenfield/



Julian Castro had a memorable line back in the 2012 Democrat convention when he mocked Mitt Romney for stating that young wannabe entrepreneurs should borrow money from their parents. Castro sarcastically responded "why didn't I think of that" noting that many wannabe entrepreneurs don't have rich parents to borrow money from.  Too bad Castro didn't have an arsenal of similar classic zingers this time around.

Booker, Harris, and Castro were unable to convince enough of "their own people" to support them. In opinion polls, they lagged so much that all 3 dropped out before the first primary. 

on why Cory Booker and Kamala Harris failed to get massive African-American support
Sheriff David Clarke, “Like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker Never Had A Chance,” Townhall, January 14, 2020, https://townhall.com/columnists/sheriffdavidclarkeret/2020/01/14/like-kamala-harris-cory-booker-never-had-a-chance-n2559456


Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg were "Johnny Come Lately's" in that they had no name recognition before the campaign.  I think they campaigned this time around just to get a buzz, and then use that as a launching pad for 2024 when they would have more name recognition by then. 

Pete Buttigieg got attention for being an openly gay man with the potential to become the first gay president.  He was the mayor of South Bend, Indiana (the home of Notre Dame University) and therefore the person who could help Democrats win the Midwest. However, police brutality scandals in his city alienated African-American voters.  

Donald Trump taunted Pete Buttigieg for looking like MAD Magazine's mascot Alfred Neuman.  Buttigieg responded by claiming he didn't know about the Alfred Neuman character and said "maybe it's a generational thing".  I didn't fall for that response. I'm about the same age as Buttigieg and damn right I grew up reading MAD Magazine! There's no way in hell Buttigieg wouldn't have known about Alfred Neuman growing up! 

Andrew Yang's  Universal Basic Income (UBI) was ahead of its time.  By the time the coronavirus crisis made UBI appealing to many who have lost their jobs, it was too late for Andrew Yang. But I think he'll be back to promote that issue in 2024. 

Tulsi Gabbard also used this primary to get national name recognition, though I doubt she'll even be a factor in 2024. I think her main goal is to become a TV pundit. This is a similar path taken by Mike Huckabee who got his own show on Fox News after his failed run in 2008. 

Amy Klobuchar got some national attention during the confirmation hearings for Brett Kavanaugh.  She was seen as a feminist hero. She was also a relatively moderate Democrat and therefore could appeal to those alienated by the "woker than thou" Kamala Harris and the socialist Bernie Sanders. 

However, reports have come about Klobuchar's verbally abusive ways towards her employees. She humiliates her workers over even the most minor errors. 

Matt Flegenheimer and Sydney Ember, “How Amy Klobuchar Treats Her Staff,” New York Times, February 22, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/22/us/politics/amy-klobuchar-staff.html



Some feminists claim that it's sexist to even make minor criticisms about Klobuchar's abusive ways. They engage in "what-about-ism" and point to male bosses who engage in similar behavior. But in real life, people do NOT hesitate to refer to abusive male bosses as "pigs", "a-hole", "jerk", and "a d---" (d-word that rhymes with rick).  But people hesitate to make minor criticisms of female bosses out of fear of being called "sexist", "mansplainers", "can't handle strong women" and other slanders. 

Also, note the worker abuse allegations regarding Amy Klobuchar were basically non-existent regarding Elizabeth Warren. In other words, Klobuchar is being judged on the content of her character. 

I truly believe that if Bernie Sanders didn't run in 2020, Elizabeth Warren would've gotten nearly the entire far-left progressive base and would've been more competitive with  Joe Biden.  Bernie Sanders was just too exciting a competitor for Elizabeth Warren to keep up with. 

I also think Elizabeth Warren's changing narrative about her alleged Native American ancestry also aroused suspicions among voters. Me being a mixed-race people whose parent's DNA test revealed some low percentages of racial ancestries my family didn't identify with, I could identify with Warren's struggle to learn about her identity. However, the general public just wasn't ready to hear it and they believed she emphasized her very low level of Native American ancestry to gain Affirmative Action points when applying for university jobs. 


my blog post on my parent's DNA test
https://pablowegesend.blogspot.com/2017/03/tracing-my-roots.html



articles on why Elizabeth Warren lost the primaries

Katie Herzog, “Sexism didn't kill the Warren campaign. The Warren campaign killed the Warren campaign.,” Reason Magazine, March 6, 2020, https://reason.com/2020/03/06/sexism-didnt-kill-the-warren-campaign-the-warren-campaign-killed-the-warren-campaign/


Timothy Shenk, “Elizabeth Warren Was the Wrong Kind of Radical,” New York Times, March 5, 2020,
----

Mike Bloomberg was supposed to come and "save" the Democrats from the socialists and the "woker than thous."  He had tons of money and was able to out-advertise most of his opponents. It turned out that it was all for nothing.

Bloomberg wasn't trusted by most Democrat supporters. He constantly changes political parties. He was a Democrat, then became a Republican to replace Rudy Giuliani as New York's mayor. He then became independent, and then became a Democrat again to run in the primary.

Bloomberg left the Republican Party due to his anti-gun stance. Yes, he said something about the rich should pay higher taxes, and he said something about climate change, but his main issue for switching was his anti-gun stance. While this issue will make him feel at home with the Democrats, it is also an issue which would've alienated the general public.

However, what really hurt Bloomberg among Democrats was law enforcement policies as New York's mayor. As mayor, Bloomberg continued Giuliani's "stop & frisk" policies that treated African-Americans and Latinos as guilty until proven innocent.  Bloomberg doubled-down on that issue until he made an obviously phony apology YEARS AFTER his time as mayor was over. 

Bloomberg also had some serious sexual harassment allegations, and he protected himself with Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDA). In the #metoo era, time's up for that kind of nonsense.

What exactly was the strategy for Bloomberg to run for president? Was it to appeal to the sector of the population that wanted someone who was just slightly less worse than Donald Trump?  Those people would've voted for Trump anyway. 

Bloomberg did prove one thing though. There are limits to the power of money when it comes to elections. 

Eric Boehm, “Losers Bloomberg and Steyer spent millions. Stop freaking out about money in politics.,” Reason Magazine, March 4, 2020, https://reason.com/2020/03/04/losers-bloomberg-and-steyer-spent-millions-stop-freaking-out-about-money-in-politics/



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And then we had Bernie Sanders.

He came out of nowhere and made the world take notice as he energized a new generation of progressives when he ran against Hillary Clinton in 2016. He promised free college and Medicare for All.  He demanded higher taxes on the rich and more programs for the poor.  He wasn't afraid to call himself a socialist, and a whole new generation that was born after the Cold War was OK with that too!

However, in 2016, he couldn't get enough African-American voters excited for him, whereas Hillary Clinton had an advantage being that her husband was very popular with African-Americans. 

By 2020, the Bernie Sanders revolution had 4 more years to gain momentum. Many young progressives felt that his boldness would be a perfect match against Donald Trump. They don't want business as usual. They thought Joe Biden was the epitome of the failed Democrat establishment, and that it was now their turn to take over the party.

Bernie Sanders did very well in the early primaries. He basically tied with Buttigieg in Iowa and won in New Hampshire and Nevada.

However,  Bernie Sanders's past statements praising Fidel Castro became public.  Sanders had long praised Castro's socialist programs while using weasel words to dismiss Castro's brutality as a dictator.

At times like these, great leaders are put to the test. In his first run for president, Barack Obama was questioned about his church's pastor (Reverend Jeremiah Wright) yelling "God Damn America".  In response, Obama made a legendary speech about where he differed from Rev. Wright while explaining to the public the historical context that Wright's feelings came from. 

As for Bernie Sanders, when questioned about his praise for Fidel Castro, he basically doubled-down! He refused to apologize!

This was the moment from which Bernie Sanders could never recover.

Bernie Sanders could've had his legendary moment had he went to Miami and tearfully apologize for not taking Fidel Castro's brutality seriously.   Too late now! 

Bill Clinton was the master at tearful apologies. He showed vulnerable emotions from a position of strength. It may sound manipulative but it works.

Bernie Sanders refused to do this. 

This issue proved that Bernie Sanders showed a lack of empathy towards the victims of Fidel Castro's regime.

here's an article by a victim of Fidel Castro's indoctrination

Yuri PĂ©rez, “Yes, Bernie Sanders, Castro's literacy program was 'a bad thing.' I was indoctrinated by it.,” NBC News, February 28, 2020,
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/yes-bernie-sanders-castro-s-literacy-program-was-bad-thing-ncna1145001


And here's an article about the gains in literacy in Cuba under Fidel Castro was less impressive than THE GREATER GAINS IN LITERACY in the REST OF LATIN AMERICA during the same time period

Becket Adams, “Stop Praising Castro for Health and Education 'advances',” Washington Examiner, November 28, 2016, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/stop-praising-castro-for-health-and-education-advances.



Everyone predicted this issue would harm Bernie Sanders in Florida where a lot of Cuban refugees live.

It turns out it harmed him everywhere else too.

Look at the results, look at the scoreboard. Bernie Sanders lost nearly every primary after being questioned about the issue.

It wasn't just the Cuban-American community that was offended, it offended nearly everyone else with some human decency! 

Though to be fair, some might've voted against Bernie Sanders mostly out of strategic reasons:  they are so desperate to defeat Donald Trump that they voted against Bernie Sanders because they KNOW this issue will continue to hurt him in the General Election. It's "let's stop Bernie Sanders now because he will cause us to lose Florida".

Those who continue to support Bernie Sanders will insist that he lost the primaries because of the Big Bad Corporate Donors to the DNC. They will insist that the center-left media just favored Biden against Sanders.  

But don't forget this, when Bernie Sanders was tested on an issue that required a show of human empathy, he failed!


=======

And now there is one!

It all comes down to Joe Biden!

He still has a lot of goodwill from being Obama's vice-president.

He has gotten further left this time around, but not too far left to scare the moderates. 

When questioned about socialized-medicine, he correctly pointed out that Italy has that system, but it still was burdened heavily by the coronavirus crisis. 

He might modify Obama's Affordable Care Act, but he won't make it a government monopoly like Sanders wanted.

He will likely make moderate proposals to reduce college debt and increase college financial aid, but won't likely make college free for all. 

The American public really doesn't want radical overhauls, they tend to want moderate improvements. Joe Biden represents that!

 2016 would've been a perfect time to run. He could've defeated Trump. However, the "woker than thou" crowd demanded Hillary Clinton. We know the results of that! 

The American public doesn't want "woker than thou" regardless of how loud & vicious the twitter mobs are.  This primary (plus the Dave Chappelle special) showed how shallow the support for the "woke" SJW pansies are even in the communities they claim to represent. 

Look at the scoreboard, the African-American community still supported Joe Biden even after Kamala Harris humiliated him in the debate.  "Woker than thou" doesn't work! 

Nobody with a working brain could ever think that a person who served as a top assistant to the first black president could be a racist.  So Kamala Harris should've just knocked it off with that nonsense! 

=====

Yes, there are weaknesses in Joe Biden.

He is becoming less clear in expressing his thoughts! This could be trouble when it comes time to debate Donald Trump, a master manipulator. 

There's also the sexual harassment scandal with Tara Reade. She alleged that Biden did to her what Trump bragged about doing in that infamous conversation with Billy Bush. 

Even though Trump is a known sex offender, he was still able to call Bill Clinton out about his past sex offenses in 2016.  What makes anyone think Trump won't do the same in 2020 to Joe Biden? 

Trump has a fan base that will support him no matter what. 

Joe Biden has the challenge of convincing skeptical progressives and moderates that he is up for the job. 

He will also have to find a running mate who will make up for his weaknesses. 

The big question is would that be enough?

Time will tell!