Thursday, November 15, 2012

election analysis (Hawaii edition)

Finally, I got time to blog on last week's Hawaii election results



1) Honolulu Mayor's election

This was where I felt the most disappointment this election.

Kirk Caldwell (55%)  defeated Ben Cayetano (45%)


The main issue was the proposed rail system.


For too long, pretty much every establishment politicians supported the rail project, even though we don't even have enough money to maintain our infrastructure (ie. parks, sewers, buses, water mains, roads) as it is!


And the main guy running on an anti-rail platform in the past few elections was Panos Prevedorous  --  an engineering  professor who was originally from Greece.  Unfortunately, many voters won't vote for someone they can't relate to, and not many people in Hawaii could relate to a Greek professor that they haven't heard of.

So Ben Cayetano was the best hope to stop rail.  He was local, of Filipino ancestry, and he was already a long-time legislator and a 2-term governor. If anyone could stop rail, it was Cayetano.

While Cayetano got way more votes than Prevedorous ever could (compare 45% to 18%), it still wasn't enough.

This was because most of the population growth is now in West Oahu, where the demand for rail is very high. Their votes pretty much cancel out votes from areas rail was never going to reach (ie. North Shore, Windward Oahu, East Honolulu)


However, most West Oahu rail supporters aren't likely to give up their cars, their mentality is "rail will get rid of OTHER cars off the road." With thousands with that mentality, don't expect much traffic reduction from West Oahu.


Anyways, to learn more about why I oppose the rail project, and the reductions in bus service to make way for rail, check out the following links

http://pablowegesend.blogspot.com/2012/07/cayetano-and-rail.html


http://pablowegesend.blogspot.com/2012/07/bus-service-cuts-hurt-disabled.html http://pablowegesend.blogspot.com/2012/05/bus-route-insanity.html
http://pablowegesend.blogspot.com/2012/07/city-council-meeting.html


2) Hawaii's Democratic majority --- not going away anytime soon!

Hawaii has been pretty much pro-Democrat!

However, a decade ago, it was predicted that the Republicans will rise in Hawaii, especially since Linda Lingle won the governor's election in 2002!

But since then ................ nothing! Nothing from the Republicans.

Linda Lingle tried running for US Senate! She lost to Mazie Hirono, who she beat for governor back in 2002. 

Too many people still remember Linda Lingle for "Furlough Fridays" when the school days got reduced due to budget shortages. That cost her Lt Gov Duke Aiona to lose the gubernatorial election 2 years ago, and that cost Lingle her senate campaign this year.

Lingle's time has pretty much passed her by!  Even though many positives occurred early in her time as governor (ie. improved economy, better business climate), the Furlough Friday was too powerful an issue that people will never forget for a long time.

If Lingle wants a comeback, she would be best advised to wait another decade, when most people's anger of Furlough Fridays would fade.

------------

In other news...........

For US House District 1  ---- Charles Djou (45%)  lost to Colleen Hanabusa (55%)

US House District 2  ---- Kawika Crowley (19%)  lost to new liberal star Tulsi Gabbard (81%)

Hawaii state senate only will have 1 Republican senator (Sam Slom).  Republican legend Fred Hemmings tried to come out of retirement this year, but lost.

In the state House, there will be  44 Democrats and 7 Republicans (1 less than before)

---------

Chances are the Republicans would have a hard time rising in Hawaii anytime soon.

The Republican brand is poison to many Hawaii voters.

You can tell by the way Lingle and Djou kept emphasizing  being "bipartisan" instead of being "Republican"

You can tell by anti-Cayetano brochures kept posting pictures of Cayetano alongside Mitt Romney and Linda Lingle, nevermind that Ben Cayetano was a long-time Democrat and is still a Democrat!   But the brochures' points were  "Cayetano is no longer one of us, he's with those right-wingers now"

Yep, being merely accused of "siding with Republicans" is now considered poison to your reputation!


And with the national Republican Party being even more dependent on white, ultra-conservative Christian Southern voters than before, the Republican brand is becoming even less appealing to the Hawaii voter. Good luck getting the youth vote now!

And the tragedy is, with  a Democrat monopoly on power, there will be a stagnation when it comes to coming up with new ideas to push the state forward.

But that's the problem with a 2-party system. It's "you either with the Democrats or the crazy right-wingers" NEVERMIND that there are more political viewpoints than that!

The only way we can reduce the Democrat monopoly is to make all  state elections non-partisan.

[Honolulu city & county elections are non-partisan :)  ]

 Instead of candidates hiding behing the (D) on the ballot, make them defend their points to a wide audience. Let there more competition than just "liberal Democrats vs right-wing crazies". Let the moderates, libertarians, etc have more of a voice in our system.

 That way, someone like Ben Cayetano can oppose the rail project without being smeared as a "Romney Republican"!

And in general, let ANYONE oppose any Democrat initiatives without being slandered as a "right-wing Republican!"

Making all elections non-partisan will be the only way forward!