Saturday, May 29, 2010

Charles Djou & Hawaii political trends

1) Here in Hawaii, we had a free-for-all election for the state's US House District 1. This district extends from East Honolulu to Ewa & Mililani!

Because the political parties didn't have a primary it was a free-for-all. The Democrats had Ed Case & Colleen Hanabusa. The Republicans had Charles Djou.

Hawaii usually votes Democrats, but in this free-for-all, the Democratic voters were split between Case (representing the centrist moderates) and Hanabusa (representing the union vote and other left-liberals). This gave an opening to Charles Djou.

http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2010/May/24/ln/hawaii5240346.html


Congressman-elect Charles Djou's strength remains in more conservative East Honolulu, but he demonstrated in his special-election victory Saturday night that he may be able to compete with Democrats in central and west side territory that could be critical in the November general election.

While most of Hawaii is pro-Democrat, East Honolulu is mostly Republican. You can compare East Honolulu to California's Orange County! These are upper-class conservative areas that happen to be near liberal cities.


An Advertiser analysis of the vote by state House district found that Djou performed well in potential swing districts around Mililani and 'Ewa Beach. While the combined vote for Hanabusa and Case was still larger than Djou's markers, there is no guarantee all these voters would stick with the Democratic nominee in November.
Hanabusa trailed Case in East Honolulu but did better than the former congressman in every district west of Makiki — an encouraging sign for her campaign against Case in the September primary.


Hanabusa's muscle in the most solidly Democratic territory of urban Honolulu, combined with her expected edge in fundraising and the organizational help from establishment Democrats and labor unions, gives her the advantage in the primary.

In other words, Djou also did well in the suburbs in Ewa & Mililani, whereas Hanabusa did well in lower income areas like Kalihi, Palolo & Waipahu!

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Case captured the state House district he used to represent in Mānoa but trailed in every other district.

While Manoa is similar to East Honolulu in that both areas tend to have a lot of upper-class people, many of European and East Asian ancestry, Manoa has a more liberal vibe. The University of Hawaii is located in Manoa, and many UH professors are left-leaning liberals who live nearby. You'll also find some hippie-ish people hanging out at Manoa Marketplace and in Mo'ili'ili. So while East Honolulu is Hawaii's version of Orange County, Manoa is Hawaii's version of Seattle/Portland/Berkeley.

While Manoa was a former home to the moderate Ed Case, it is the home of the left-wing Neil Abercombie who is quitting Congress to run for governor. It was also where Barack Obama spent a part of his childhood! So that area does have a liberal legacy.

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There will be another election for this same seat later this year.

Some predict that Hanabusa will win the Democrat primary, and those who wanted Ed Case in the Democrat primary might switch to Republican Charles Djou in the general election.

But I'm thinking Ed Case's former Manoa neighbors will stick with the Democrats in the general election, because I think many are too liberal to vote for Djou.

But I think Ed Case's supporters from other neighborhoods (ie. Ewa, Mililani, East Honolulu, downtown) tend to be more pro-business and would choose Charles Djou over Colleen Hanabusa in the general election.