Being that Hawaii is an overwhelmingly Democrat state, that was where most of the campaign action was.
Those who earned the spot for the Democratic nomination are the likely winners for the General Elections.
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Hawaii Governor
4 years ago, an obscure state senator David Ige pulled an upset over the incumbent governor Neil Abercrombie for the Democrat nominee for governor. Obviously, Ige went on to win the General Election.
Now, it was Ige in the hot seat.
Ige isn't the most charismatic politician out there and has usually been slow to communicate with the public when it comes to almost everything. Ige was a big fan of the "Quiet & Effective" mold of leadership personified by former governor George Ariyoshi. However, Ariyoshi was a governor before the era of the 24-hour news cycle and social media. Nowadays, people want instant answers from their elected officials.
This came to a boiling point in January when a false missile alert came ringing on many people's smartphones on one Saturday morning. It took 38 minutes between the false missile alert and the notice that the missile alert was false.
Meanwhile, Governor Ige forgot his Twitter password.
That didn't inspire confidence from a public that wants instant answers!
Colleen Hanabusa saw opportunity. She noticed many people were dissatisfied with Ige, and viewed it as a perfect time to run for governor.
She ran many attack ads calling David Ige an incompetent leader.
However, nature gave David Ige second and third chances to prove that he is leadership material.
The flood hit Kauai and the volcanic eruptions displaced many people in the Puna district on the Big Island.
Emergency operations mostly went smoothly and there weren't that many complaints. David Ige was communicating more with the public, giving them the confidence that he is up to the task.
Meanwhile, Hanabusa continued with the attack ads questioning Ige's competence as a leader.
Ige then had a TV ad that started with the statement "criticism isn't leadership".
Hanabusa's female allies had a press conference calling that ad "sexist" and accused it of perpetuating sexist double standards associated with female leaders.
But nearly nobody fell for that abuse of the gender card.
watch this TV ad and tell me if you think it's sexist
Anyone who watched that ad would be hard pressed to find real sexism there!
Nobody believes David Ige is any type of sexist.
Plus, his wife was a longtime school administrator, so much for the idea that Ige looks down on female leaders.
So, therefore, the results are in, David Ige won this round
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On the Republican side, there was perennial candidate John Carroll, whose name appears on a ballot every election but hasn't won an office in decades.
Meanwhile, state legislator Andria Tupola brought new energy to the Republican side of the campaign.
She is a conservative Christian, but she wants a more lenient immigration policy. That ticked off Eric Ryan (a vocal supporter of Jon Carroll) who made many memes mocking Tupola as a RINO (Republican In Name Only). Ryan was later accused of cyber-bullying Tupola, and he was served with a restraining order.
Tupola won the Republican nomination and will face David Ige in the General Election
Lieutenant Governor
Being that current Lt Gov Doug Chin was running for US House (more on this later in this blog post), it was an opportunity for other politicians to climb the ladder.
They included
- Jill Tokuda (state legislator known to be relatively fiscal conservative and a critic of the rail project)
- Josh Green (state legislator and emergency room doctor)
- Will Espero (state legislator known for demanding accountability from law enforcement)
- Bernard Cravalho (Kauai mayor and former UH football player)
- Kim Coco Iwamoto (former Board of Education member)
Tokuda and Green were the front-runners. Green just overwhelmed the airwaves with ads focusing more on his supporters than on himself. That was a winning strategy.
Will Espero's campaign probably didn't have enough money, which is too bad, because I loved it when he demanded higher accountability standards for local law enforcement and he was brave enough to publicly criticize the police officer's union leadership, as well as the former Honolulu police chief who is currently under investigation.
Congress
Mazie Hirono went unopposed for her party's nomination for US Senate.
Meanwhile, most of the action was for US House District 1.
Colleen Hanabusa left that seat to run for governor. So now it was time for other local politicians to get their chance to represent Hawaii in Congress.
The early announcers for the seat included
- Donna Mercado Kim (longtime legislator)
- Kaniela Ing (young progressive legislator)
- Beth Fukumoto (who recently left the Republican Party)
- Ernie Martin (city councilman)
- Doug Chin (former Attorney General turned Lieutenant Governor)
Donna Mercado Kim was a very vocal long-time legislator so she had the early lead in the opinion polls.
Doug Chin and Beth Fukumoto were basically "Johnny Come Lately's" whose main claim to fame was their public criticisms of Donald Trump.
Beth Fukumoto basically left the Republican Party because the rest of the party was angry over her public criticisms of Donald Trump.
Doug Chin was mostly unknown to the general public until he led the state's lawsuit against Trump's immigration restrictions against people from 7 Muslim-majority countries. It was a shocker that Hawaii would take the lead on this issue because even though Hawaii is known for its diversity, not many Muslim immigrants come here. But Doug Chin wasn't afraid to defend a persecuted minority regardless of how few of them are here. This made him a national hero for many anti-Trump people.
Kaniela Ing is a young progressive leader who felt the other nominees weren't progressive enough. He felt being anti-Trump wasn't enough, that the mainstream Democrats were neglecting the lower-income residents, and noted that his opponents were against same-sex marriage until very recently, and therefore, insufficiently progressive.
Kaniela Ing was also the rare brave soul to publicly note that the deceased senator Dan Inouye was a sex offender.
[I blogged about that issue at
Ernie Martin had little name recognition and only gained publicity when criticizing Kaniela Ing for his criticisms of Dan Inouye.
But there was one more person to join the race.
On the final day to officially file with the Elections Office, Ed Case joined in.
Ed Case was a former legislator and Congressman who hasn't held elected office for a decade.
But he had name recognition!
His presence basically sucked the oxygen from Donna Mercado Kim's lead! Like Kim, Case had strong credibility as a longtime leader. But he also had a less polarizing personality.
Ed Case was a long-known for being a relatively fiscal conservative compared to most Democrats.
When word got out that Ed Case was the new leader in the polls, California-based Cenk Uygur (of the Young Turks Network) acted so shocked that a progressive state like Hawaii would support Ed Case.
see Cenk Uygur's commentary here
Uygur (like many from the continental US) misunderstand Hawaii and Ed Case.
Here are my comments that I posted in regards to Cenk Uygur's analysis
Kaniela Ing was the rare brave soul who publicly called Dan Inouye (dead late senator considered a demigod here) an alleged rapist, and he got backlash for that! All for believing a rape victim who went public DECADES ago when Dan Inouye was still alive! But too many "progressives" (including our ENTIRE Congressional delegation) view Dan Inouye as a saint should never be questioned!
Because Kaniela Ing publicly questioned a "demigod", that put a target on his back by political operatives who later found out that Ing committed some campaign spending violations. That right there slowed his momentum
Ed Case got into the race last minute (as in he only made the announcement right before the filing deadline). He is definitely a fiscal conservative, but he has long been pro-choice, anti-gun and even pro-LGBT decades before that was even considered cool. Yes, even in the late 90s (when the allegedly "progressive" population of Hawaii voted AGAINST same-sex marriage), Ed Case supported same-sex marriage. So that issue alone would've made him an outcast in the Republican Party!
Another thing that's not mentioned in this video is that Ed Case was the ONLY major politician in Hawaii to question the Jones Act, the shipping law that severely farms US occupied islands like Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico, etc. that law restricted our access to international law and made imports even more expensive than they already are. The Jones Act have long been supported by local politicians paid off by big shipping companies and the ILWU. The allegedly "progressive" Kaniela Ing side with the protectionist shipping lobby.
Being that Jones Act is the biggest economic threat to Hawaii (and all US occupied islands), I'd have to go with Ed Case, regardless of what "progressives" from a thousand miles away have said!
Also, the so-called "progressive/conservative" divide is a social construct imported by Westerners! They don't always easily match how local people in Hawaii think.
People do tend to vote Democrat here basically because 1) we have a majority non-white population and therefore have an instant gag-reflex towards Trump's xenophobic attitude, 2) many of our workers are unionized, 3) our sexual mores tend to be more lenient for heterosexuals, making many of us supportive of legalized abortion BEFORE Roe vs Wade
However, that doesn't erase the fact that much of Hawaii's population had a gag-reflex towards homosexuality until very very recently. In fact, many so-called "progressives" in our legislator BEGGED former governor Neil Abercrombie to not call for a special legislative session to resolve the same-sex marriage controversy after a court ruling in 2013. Those legislators were crapping in their pants fearing that their constituents would retaliate against them. But then same-sex marriage passed the legislature and people finally realized the world didn't end!
Also, in the 90's, Japan (our major source of tourist & investor income) economy plummeted, bringing less revenue to our tax collectors. In that climate, fiscal conservatives starting to rise in our political scene, making room for Ed Case and moderate Republicans (meaning they're not as insane as Jesse Helms or Donald Trump) like Linda Lingle, Charles Djou and Beth Fukumoto to win elections in the 2000's. So it doesn't surprise me AT ALL that Ed Case will win in our political climate!
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Yes, I noted Kaniela Ing had some campaign spending violations. When that was publicly revealed, THAT knocked his campaign's momentum down big time. People expected better from someone who goes around talking about how progressive he is. People also expected better from someone who is already a legislator, they would've been more lenient if this was someone running his first campaign.
Also, his defense of the Jones Act was a major turn-off.
I've actually met Ed Case in the summer, a few days after he criticized the Jones Act during a debate. I personally thanked him for that, though he did admit he hasn't talked much on the issue compared to during his previous campaigns.
Now that Ed Case has won, he can at least try to do something about the Jones Act. He needs to be ready to pounce anytime Jones Act is in the news and hold hearings on the issue.
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As for US House District 2, Tulsi Gabbard kept her seat.
Only a few years ago, Tulsi Gabbard publicly spoke for the need for more debates between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
But Tulsi Gabbard refused to debate her opponents this time around. In other words, she didn't want to publicly defend her record from aggressive questioning.
Tulsi's claim to fame was defeating an established politician Mufi Hanneman back in 2012. If Tusli keeps ducking debates in future campaigns, she might be the next established politicians to go down to the next underdog politician.
